摘要
本文在SMART模型框架下建立了一个局部均衡模型,基于HS6分位数据模拟中日韩三国间不同的阶段性双边关税减让方案和长期内关税的全部减让对三国经济的影响。结果表明,中日韩自由贸易协定启动后,三国的农业部门、日本和韩国的纺织品部门以及中国的汽车部门将受到来自其他两国较为明显的冲击。机电产品及其零部件的区域内贸易增长潜力有限,但三国在该领域的垂直专业化分工尚具备进一步拓展的潜力。中日韩自由贸易区谈判首先要克服来自当前高度保护部门的阻力,而在机电产品领域应重点促进区域内投资和技术贸易的便利化,运用发达的地区分工网络提升各国在后危机时代的全球竞争力。
This paper establishes a partial equilibrium model within the framework of SMART,and casts a simulation on the economic effects of various tariff cut schedules among China,Japan and Korea(the CJK FTA) by using HS6 digit level data.The results indicate that,the launch of FTA among the three economies will bring shocks to the agriculture sector in each country,meanwhile,the textile and clothes sectors in Japan and Korea,the automobile sector in China will suffer shocks from the other partners.Although the potential regional trade growth rate in the machinery and electronics sector will be relatively lower,the potential vertical specialization among the three economies is still noteworthy.The most prominent resistance against the CJK FTA negotiation comes from the highly protected agriculture sectors,while it is also important to facilitate inner-regional investment and technology trade in the machinery and electronics sector,so as to promote the regional widely global competitiveness in the post crisis era.
出处
《世界经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第12期65-71,共7页
World Economy Studies
