摘要
在动态博弈的理论框架下,基于GTAP模型的模拟结果,文章考察了中日韩三国能否通过首先建立双边FTA从而过渡到中日韩FTA以及可以通过何种路径完成这一目标。结果显示:中日两国不会首先建立自由贸易区;日韩两国首先建立自由贸易区后,可以通过直接吸纳中国加入的方式形成中日韩自由贸易区,而中韩FTA建成后却不能通过吸纳日本的方式达成此目的;中韩自由贸易区或日韩自由贸易区首先建成的情况下,可通过轮轴—辐条的FTA结构,促进中日韩自由贸易区的成立,但日本作为轮轴国的情况不包含在可行路径之中。从中国的角度看,中国应首先推进中韩自由贸易区建设,并在此后根据日韩双边自由贸易区谈判情况,考虑与日本开始自由贸易区谈判。
Based on GTAP simulation results,this paper examines whether a bilateral FTA paves the way for multilateral free trade（ MFT） among China,Japan and Korea,and then considers what are the feasible paths in a dynamic game model. The main conclusions are as follows： A bilateral FTA between China and Japan will not be formed initially. If Japan- Korea FTA completes initially,it will expand through the acceptance of China and be a building block for China- Japan- Korea FTA,even if China- Korea FTA will not lead to MFT via Japan ＇s participation. The expansion of China- Korea FTA or Japan- Korea FTA through overlapping trade agreements allows the option of hub- and- spoke systems and achieves MFT,except when Japan acts as a hub country. China should promote the negotiations of China- Korea FTA firstly,and then consider launching the FTA negotiations with Japan according to the process of Japan-Korea FTA negotiations.
出处
《现代日本经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第1期43-54,共12页
Contemporary Economy OF Japan
基金
华东师范大学人文社会科学青年预研究"混合寡头市场的环境政策研究"(78110155)
