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Projections of 2.0°C Warming over the Globe and China under RCP4.5 被引量:20

Projections of 2.0°C Warming over the Globe and China under RCP4.5
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摘要 The outputs of 17 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are employed to investigate the temporal and spatial features of 2.0°C warming of the surface temperature over the globe and China under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 scenario. The simulations of the period 1860-1899 in the "historical" experiment are chosen as the baseline. The simulations for the 21st century in the RCP4.5 experiment are chosen as the future project. The multi-model ensemble mean (MME) shows that the global mean temperature would cross the 2.0°C warming threshold in 2047. Warming in most of the models would cross the threshold during 2030-2060. For local warming, high-latitude areas in the Northern Hemisphere show the fastest warming over the globe. Land areas warm substantially faster than the oceans. Most of the southern oceans would not exceed the 2.0°C warming threshold within the 21st century. Over China, surface warming is substantially faster than the global mean. The area-averaged warming would cross the 2.0°C threshold in 2034. Locally, Northwest China shows the fastest warming trend, followed by Central North China and Northeast China. Central China, East China, and South China are the last to cross the 2.0°C warming threshold. The diversity of the models is also estimated in this study. Generally, the spread among the models increases with time, and there is smaller spread among the models for the areas with the faster warming. The outputs of 17 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are employed to investigate the temporal and spatial features of 2.0°C warming of the surface temperature over the globe and China under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 scenario. The simulations of the period 1860–1899 in the "historical" experiment are chosen as the baseline. The simulations for the 21st century in the RCP4.5 experiment are chosen as the future project. The multi-model ensemble mean (MME) shows that the global mean temperature would cross the 2.0°C warming threshold in 2047. Warming in most of the models would cross the threshold during 2030–2060. For local warming, high-latitude areas in the Northern Hemisphere show the fastest warming over the globe. Land areas warm substantially faster than the oceans. Most of the southern oceans would not exceed the 2.0°C warming threshold within the 21st century. Over China, surface warming is substantially faster than the global mean. The area-averaged warming would cross the 2.0°C threshold in 2034. Locally, Northwest China shows the fastest warming trend, followed by Central North China and Northeast China. Central China, East China, and South China are the last to cross the 2.0°C warming threshold. The diversity of the models is also estimated in this study. Generally, the spread among the models increases with time, and there is smaller spread among the models for the areas with the faster warming.
作者 Zhang Ying
出处 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 2012年第6期514-520,共7页 大气和海洋科学快报(英文版)
基金 supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2009CB421407)
关键词 surface warming 2.0°C threshold RCP4.5 globe China 中国西北地区 全球变暖 预测 集合平均 全球平均气温 中高纬度地区 估计模型 表面温度
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  • 1JIANG DaBang1,2,3, ZHANG Ying1,4 & SUN JianQi1,3 1 Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China,2 Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena D-07745, Germany,3 Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China,4 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.Ensemble projection of 1―3℃ warming in China[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2009,54(18):3326-3334. 被引量:22

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