摘要
本文建立了一个包含异质家户、企业、金融借贷机构、中央银行等多经济主体的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,并选取相关参数,利用Matlab软件对中国经济进行模拟。我们发现:在我国存在资产的财富效应;房地产需求对推高房价有一定作用,但会产生诸如消费低迷、产出下降等不良后果;通胀冲击对于整体经济破坏性较大,且持续时间较长;财政冲击对企业的影响要大于对家户的影响;在中国影响房地产价格最重要的因素是通货膨胀率和利率;从长期看,制度创新、技术进步等因素对于稳健的经济发展有重要作用。
This paper establishes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which includes a representative household and an enterprise, financial lending institutions, the central bank and other heterogeneous agents. By selecting relevant parameters and using Matlab simulation, we find out China＇ s existing wealth effects; the needs for real estate push up the price of real estate, and will lead to a low consumption and output as well as other adverse consequences ; inflation shock for overall economic damage is bigger, and will persist long; fiscal shock impacts enterprise greater than that of household ; the price of real estate in China is the most important factor to inflation and interest rates. In the long run, we should pay attention to system innovation and technology progress because such factors will still play important roles on economic development in the future.
出处
《经济评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第6期25-35,共11页
Economic Review
基金
2009年国家社会科学基金项目"公共品供给
土地溢价效应与城市增长管理研究"(编号:09CJY034)的资助
