摘要
根据洪水预报确定性系数的定义,推导了洪水过程相对预报误差的标准差与确定性系数的关系,分析了洪水过程预报误差的分布规律;采用水库调洪演算的随机微分方程,解析了方差率与预报误差分布规律的关系,从而将洪水过程预报误差的不确定性转化为库水位过程的不确定性,借以分析水库防洪预报调度的风险水平。以隔河岩水库为例,计算了不同洪水预报精度下水库防洪调度的极限风险率和漫坝风险率,为隔河岩水库开展洪水预报调度提供了科学依据。
Based on the definition of determination coefficient of flood forecasting, the relationship between forecasting standard error and coefficient of determination was deduced and the foreeasting error distribution of reservoir in flow hydrograph was analyzed. The stochastic differential equations （SDEs） were applied to reservoir flood routing for risk estimation of reservoir flood operation. The uncertainty of inflow hydrograph forecasting error was transformed into that of reservoir water level, through the derivation of relation be- tween variance rate of SDEs and standard error of inflow forecasting error. The Geheyan reservoir was select- ed as a case study. Extreme and overtopping risks of the reservoir under different forecasting accuracy were estimated, which can provide the guide to reservoir flood control.
出处
《水利学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第7期803-807,共5页
Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
基金
国家科技支撑计划(2009BAC56B02)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51079100)
关键词
风险分析
随机微分
洪水预报误差
预报调度
risk analysis
stochastic differential equations
flood forecasting error
flood control operation
