摘要
施工导流标准的确定，就其本质而言是风险决策问题。在分析导流过程随机特性的基础上，将各种水力不确定性因素引入导流堰前水位的推求过程，建立了导流水力计算的随机微分方程，求解堰前水位过程的概率密度。并结合工程实例，讨论了不同导流标准和导流方案的导流风险度，进行了风险决策，并提出了工程建议。
The standard of river diversion during construction is one of important problems involving safe and economic design scheme of hydroelectric project. After analysing the stochastic characteristics of river diversion process during construction, various uncertain factors including a stochastic initial condition, a stochastic coefficient and a stochastic input term are introduced into calculating program of level profiles before cofferdam, a stochastic differential equation is established. By using the Fokker-Planck equation,the probability density distributions of the level profiles before cofferdam are solved.Based on discussing the risk under different standards and design schemes of the river diversion during construction, the risk decision method is applied, a reasonable standard and design scheme of the river diversion for some project are suggested.
关键词
施工导流标准
随机微分方程
风险决策
水利工程
standard of river diversion during construction, risk analysis and risk decision, stochastic differential equation
