摘要
目的:分别从供给与需求角度研究到2015年我市床位发展水平,为确定我市2015年的床位资源配置目标提供参考。方法:应用常规GM(1,1)模型和新陈代谢模型预测2015年天津市医院床位供需水平。结果:新陈代谢模型预测精度更高,预计到2015年天津市供给床位数将达到54132张,需求床位数达到64096张,预测平均相对误差为0.37%和0.25%,供需比为0.84。结论:与《天津市"十二五"卫生资源调整规划意见》比较验证模型预测的合理性,提出"十二五"期间天津市病床资源总量建设的政策建议。
Objective： Study the beds developing level in 2015 from the perspectives of supply and demand,to provide references for making the bed resources allocation target of Tianjin in 2015.Method： Use regular GM（1,1） model and metabolic model to predict the hospital bed supply and demand level of Tianjin in 2015.Results： The prediction accuracy of the metabolic model is better.In 2015 the supply in Tianjin will be 54123 beds,while demand will be 64096,average relative deviation is 0.37% and 0.25%,and the supply and demand ratio is 0.84.Conclusion： The rationality of the prediction result was validated by comparing with the twelfth five-year plan of health resources in Tianjin.Finally,the policy recommendations of the total bed resources construction during the twelfth five-year plan were proposed.
出处
《中国卫生事业管理》
北大核心
2012年第4期275-278,共4页
Chinese Health Service Management
