摘要
对于城市大规模配电网来说,由于用电负荷、接线方式、设备数量均长期处于不断的变化之中,配电网可靠性指标的预测分析对供电企业的电网规划、改造等工作都有很大的指导意义。通过对原始统计数据进行光滑处理和改变微分方程的初始条件,建立了基于边值条件修正的灰色预测GM(1,1)改进模型,并用该模型对广东某地区的配电网可靠性指标进行预测。实例证明,改进的模型对于生成序列和预测值具有指数修正效用,可以有效提高预测精度。
For large-scale urban distribution network, the power load, wiring mode and equipment number are always changed. The prediction of reliability index is important for network plan, network retrofitting in power supply enterprise. The grey prediclion GM（1, 1） improved model based on margin condition cozTection is set up through smooth treatment of original statistic data ＆ change initial condition of differential equation. The model is used to predict reliability index in Guangdong area. It is proved that the improved model can enrreet the index of generated sequence and predicted value, effectively improve the prediction aceuracy.
出处
《陕西电力》
2012年第4期68-71,共4页
Shanxi Electric Power
关键词
灰色预测
改进模型
边值条件
可靠性指标
grey prediction
improved model
margin condition
reliability index
