摘要
本文运用基于持久收入和暂时收入的两种分解方法的省际面板模型检验了持久收入理论的三个假设。结果发现,我国城镇和农村居民消费与其持久收入均显著相关。我国城镇居民消费与其暂时收入显著相关;安徽、黑龙江、吉林、陕西、甘肃、青海、云南和海南等省农村居民的暂时收入的边际消费倾向等于零,而其他省份的不等于零。"λ假说"检验表明,我国城镇和农村居民消费对当期收入都是过度敏感的,导致PIH的局限性。选择误差修正项的绝对值表征不确定性和远期的流动性约束对城镇(或农村)居民消费的影响,计量结果显示,不确定性和远期的流动性约束对城镇(或农村)居民消费产生了明显的负面影响。农村居民的预防性储蓄动机强度大于城镇居民。
This paper examines three hypotheses of permanent income hypothesis（PIH） by inter-provincial panel data model based on two decomposition method of permanent income and temporary income.The results suggest that there is a significant relationship between consumption of Chinese urban（or rural） residents and their permanent income;that zero is marginal propensity to consume out of temporary income of rural residents in Anhui,Heilongjiang,Jilin,Shaanxi,Gansu,Qinghai,Yunnan and Hainan provinces,while that of rural residents in others or urban residents in every provinces is not;that as for urban（or rural） residents in the various provinces,MPCs out of temporary income are different.As a result,different urban（or rural） consumers might judge in different way for a given change in current income.Some think the change is persistent,and others conclude that change is temporary,so their MPCs is significant difference.Further,we explore why PIH cannot fully explain consume behavior of urban（or rural） residents in China.＂λ hypothesis＂ test shows that the consumption of urban（or rural） residents is excess sensitivity to current income.Substituting the absolute value of the error correction as a proxy for uncertainty and future liquidity constraints on consumption of urban（or rural） residents,empirical results reveal that uncertainty and liquidity constraints make the obvious negative effects on consumption of urban（or rural） residents.Finally,based on our theoretical and empirical analysis,we propose recommendations for Chinese policymakers to stimulate consumption of urban（or rural） residents in China.
出处
《上海经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第1期30-41,共12页
Shanghai Journal of Economics
关键词
居民消费
持久收入
暂时收入
过度敏感性
分解方法
consumption of residents
permanent income
temporary income
excess sensitivity
decomposition method
