摘要
运用协整分析方法,对1987-2009年我国出口产品结构和金融市场的时间序列数据进行分析,初步探索了股票市场、债券市场和国家信贷市场对出口产品结构优化的不同影响,并且针对优化出口产品结构提出了一些建议。股票市场、债券市场和国家信贷市场的发展有助于出口结构的优化,而且从短期来看,债券市场比股票市场和国家信贷市场对出口结构优化具有更强的促进作用。但在我国目前以银行信贷为主的状况下,历史时间序列数据却表现出信贷市场对产品结构优化的影响最大。
Through utilizing the time series data from 1987 to 2009, this paper analyzes the different effects of the stock market, bond market and credit market in upgrading China＇ s export structure with the method of co-integration test, and finally supplies some suggestions for upgrading the export structure. According to the result, the development of the stock market, bond market and credit market helps to improve the export structure, and the bond market has a more obvious promotion to the export structure from short-term perspectives. But in China＇ s bank credit- oriented financing method, the historical time series data shows that the credit market has the biggest effect in improving export structure.
