摘要
通过对总和生育率(TFR)、终身生育率(CFR)与政策生育率(PFR)的概念及相关数据分析,论证总和生育率与政策生育率是完全不同的概念,不可直接比较。在特定条件下TFR、CFR和政策生育率会产生差异,在一个国家生育水平下降的历史时期,TFR必然小于当年49岁组女性的CFR;"超生率"、"未婚率"、"未育率"和"不孕率"的变化,决定了政策生育率与终身生育率的差异。借鉴日本经济与人口发展相关数据,可以相信由平均初婚年龄推迟、女性有偶率下降导致的生育水平下降很可能成为对我国人口均衡发展的最大潜在威胁。因此,当前以及今后相当的时期内,我国的政策生育率应高于1.8。
This paper points out the total fertility rate （TFR） cannot directly compare with policy fertility rate （PFR） in China through comparison of their respective conception and data analysis. Based on analysis of the difference caused by TFR, completed fertility rate （CFR） and PFR/under certain situations in China, this paper also examines TFR is certain to be lower than CFR of 49 - year - old women when general fertility rate drops in a country. The factors such as fertility rate over fertility policy, unmarried rate, rate of not given birth and infertility rate determine the difference between PFR and CFR. We can thus draw conclusions through related comparisons between China and Japan that the factors, such as delay in first marriage and the decline of rate of married women, are most likely to become the potential factors for balanced development of population. Thus the policy fertility rate should be set higher than 1.8 at present and for a long time in the future in China.
出处
《人口学刊》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第1期3-11,共9页
Population Journal
基金
中国人口与发展研究中心科研课题:试论时期总和生育率
终身生育率与政策生育率的关系(502110415)
