摘要
文章采用Leslie方法预测2015—2050年中国人口总量及其年龄分布结构,据此预测劳动年龄人口的劳动力供给总量,根据经济增长的就业弹性预测劳动力的需求总量,计算劳动力供需缺口。结果表明,劳动力供给和需求总量都呈现减少趋势,供给减少更快,2015年后,劳动力市场将出现供不应求的现象,供需缺口将长期存在并有扩大趋势。面对劳动力市场出现的供需缺口问题,提出了相应的政策建议。
The paper take Leslie method to forecast China＇s total population and its age distribution structure from 2015 to 2050, and then predict the total labor supply of the working-age population ,estimate the total demand for labor according to the employment elasticity of the economic growth ,calculated the gap between labor supply and demand. The results show that both the labor supply and demand showed a decreasing trend, but the supply reduced faster than demand, after 2015, the labor market appears shortage, the gap between supply and demand will exist for a long time and have a tendency to expand. Facing of the new situation and new problems of the labor market, we recommend some corresponding policy.
出处
《西北人口》
CSSCI
2014年第1期45-49,55,共6页
Northwest Population Journal
基金
中南财经政法大学博士研究生创新课题(2012B1902)
