摘要
长江干线三峡库区属于水上交通高风险水域,自2003年6月高程蓄水以来,通航环境发生了重大变化。依据动态系统状态方程构建原理,研究并建立了以年度事故死亡率为转移变量的状态方程。针对三峡成库时间较短、数据量少的特点,采用小样本的最小二乘-卡尔曼滤波-最小二乘(Least square method-Kalman filtering algorithm-Least squaremethod,LKL)参数估计方法,测算系统危险程度及安全控制力度值,得到了三峡库区水上交通安全状态方程,并进行系统分析与评价。
Three Gorges Reservoir of Yangtze River is a high-risk area of water transportation. After the high-water impoundment of Three Gorges Reservoir since June 2003, the navigation environment has undergone major changes. Based on the principles of state equation of dynamic system, it establishes a state equation of which the annual fatality rate is transfer variable. Because of the Three Gorges Reservoir＇s short running time and less statistics, it uses small sample parameter estimation method of the Least square method-Kalman filtering algorithm-Least square method （LKL） to measure the degree of system risk and the value of safety efforts to control. It builds the state equation of water transport safety of Three Gorges Reservoir for system safety analysis and evaluation.
出处
《武汉理工大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第10期55-58,共4页
Journal of Wuhan University of Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金(50979086/E091004)
关键词
三峡库区
水上交通安全
状态方程
LKL
危险程度
安全控制
Three Gorges Reservoir
water transport safety
state equation
LKL
system risk degree
safety control
