摘要
目的探究南通市通州区梅毒、淋病的发病趋势,为防治工作提供依据。方珐根据通州区2004～2010年梅毒、淋病的发病情况,利用灰色系统GM(1,1)建立预测模型进行预测。结果通州区2004～2010年梅毒年发病率呈上升趋势,淋病年发病率有下降趋势,趋势性χ~2检验有统计学意义。梅毒、淋病趋势预测方程分别为:Y(t)=0.903 957e^(0.194485(t-1))-0.468 266,Y(t)=2.311 341e^(0.094813(t-1))-2.038763。结论若无特殊情况,通州区今后2年梅毒发病率会将持续上升,淋病发病率可能会有小幅波动上升。
Objective To explore the epidemic trends of syphilis and gonorrhea in Tongzhou district of Nantong city, and provide scientific evidence for diseases prevention and control measures. Methods Based on the morbidities of syphilis and gonorrhea in Tongzhou district from 2004 to 2010, grey dynamic model is used to forecast the morbidities of the two kinds of diseases. Results There is a downward trend in the morbidity of syphilis, and a upward trend of gonorrhea, The statistical differences are very significant with the chi square for trend. The prediction models are built up： syphilis：Y（t）=0.903957e^0.194487（t-1）-0.468266,y（t）=2.311341e^0.094 813（t-1）-2.038763. Conclusion Without special circumstances, the morbidity of syphilis will continue to rise,and the morbidity of gonorrhea perhaps will rise on a small scale.
出处
《国外医学（医学地理分册）》
CAS
2011年第3期202-203,共2页
Foreign Medical Sciences：Section of Medgeography
关键词
梅毒
淋病
灰色模型
趋势预测
syphilis
gonorrhea
grey dynamic model
trend predictionl
