摘要
为了对灾害气候环境下道路交通安全进行较为准确的趋势实时预警,一种新的方法被运用到分析中来。该方法针对道路交通安全的特点,从影响交通安全趋势的评价指标选取入手,用平均车速、车流量等6项指标来反映安全潜在危机的各方面,在此基础上,选用可拓学作为建立趋势预警模型的理论基础,最后进行定量的分析。该方法为道路交通安全管理机构建立实时预警制度以及科学决策提供了新的理论思路。文章最后将此方法应用于某路段交通安全的趋势实时预警,证明了该方法合理可行,且存在着对历史样本数据无依赖、简单直观等优点。
In this paper,a new evaluation method based on the Extenics is proposed to give out a real-time trend warning for highway traffic safety.According to the characteristics of traffic safety,six indexes,such as average traffic speed,average traffic runoff and etc,are chosen to reflect various influencing factors of traffic safety.Accordingly,Extenics theory is used to set up an assessment model for trend forecast analysis.The method provides a new theoretical basis for management institutions of road traffic safety to establish an early warning system and make scientific decisions.This model is finally applied in a real-time trend warning of traffic safety of some road section.The result shows that this model is reasonable and feasible in that it does not depend on historical data.
出处
《系统工程》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第4期66-70,共5页
Systems Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(50808178)
湖南省教育厅资助项目(08C099)
教育部道路结构与材料实验室开放基金资助项目(KFJ080207)
关键词
道路交通
安全评价
可拓学
趋势预警
Traffic Safety
Safety Evaluation
Extenics Theory
Trend Warning
