摘要
在煤炭产业安全定量分析过程中,指标权重是影响分析结果科学性和可靠性的最关键因素之一。论文采用模糊群决策方法确定指标权重,用三角模糊数描述专家意见,有效地解决了专家评价值的模糊性。同时,运用集中度和相似度两个原则对专家意见进行二次收敛,充分淘汰了离异程度大的专家意见,然后计算其它专家意见的相对一致度,从而对传统的仅由相似度确定专家一致程度的方法进行了改进,尽可能地降低了专家意见的随意性和主观性。
During the process of analyzing coal industry security quantitatively,the allocation of index weights is one of the most important factors which affect the scientific and reliability of analysis result.The fuzzy group decision making method is applied to determine the weight in the paper.The triangular fuzzy number is used to descript the experts＇ opinions,which solve the problem of ambiguity in the experts＇ judgment.At the same time,the experts＇ opinions are convergence twice by the center principle and similarity principle to fully eliminate the experts＇ opinions which are much different from the others.Through this convergence,the randomicity and subjectivity of the experts＇ opinion are reduced as much as possible.
出处
《工业技术经济》
CSSCI
2011年第6期59-64,共6页
Journal of Industrial Technological Economics
基金
国家发展和改革委员会"十二五"规划前期重大问题研究项目"提高我国进口资源依托型产业竞争力研究--以钢铁和石油产业为例"
工业和信息化部发展规划研究课题"‘十二五’保障工业行业产业安全的战略及政策研究"
教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目"我国发展低碳经济的路径选择与政策设计"(项目编号:10YJC790002)
关键词
产业安全
模糊群决策
二次收敛
权重
industry security
fuzzy group decision making
bi-convergence
weight
