摘要
为考察产业投资对各产业部门和经济总体的乘数作用,利用里昂惕夫静态投入产出模型和汉森-萨缪尔森模型,在考虑了投资、国民收入和消费之间的相互作用以及产业投资与投资形成额关系的基础上,构建了结构式投资乘数模型,并由此测算了我国17个部门产业投资对各产业部门增加值和国内生产总值的影响。研究结果表明投资取向与经济增长速度无关,但会影响产业结构的变动,其中建筑业、机械设备制造业、批发零售贸易以及住宿和餐饮业的发展易受投资的影响,而在纺织、缝纫及皮革制造业、食品制造业、其他服务业等产业部门的发展中投资的作用则十分有限,这些产业部门的发展要靠消费来拉动。
In order to study the multiplier impact of industry investment on industrial sector and overall economy,a structural model of investment multiplier was established.Considering the interaction of investment,national income and consumption,as well as the relationship of industrial investment and the formation of it,we combined Leontief Input-output Model with Hansen-Samuelson Model during the establishment of the model.At last,effect of 17 industries investment on each sector and gross domestic product were calculated.The results show that investment approach has no effect on the rate of economic growth,but it can bring in changes of industrial structure.It is easy to be affected by investment for construction,manufacture of machinery and equipment,wholesale and retail trades,hotels and catering services,but the role of investment is very limited in the development of manufacture of textile,wearing apparel & leather products,manufacture of foods,and other services.The development of these industries has to rely on consumption.
出处
《中南财经政法大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第3期20-24,54,共6页
Journal of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law
基金
国家自然科学基金"产业投资与产业结构的关系及作用机理研究"(70773027)
国家软科学研究计划项目"国际金融危机下我国经济结构调整的目标与策略研究"(2010GXQ5D327)
关键词
投资乘数
投资消耗系数矩阵
投入产出模型
汉森-萨缪尔森模型
Investment Multiplier
Coefficient Matrix of Investment Consumption
Input-output Model
Hansen-Samuelson Model
