摘要
本文构建了反映各区域不同产业产值变动与国家、区域自身以及其他区域碳强度动态关系的数理模型,研究我国各区域产业结构变动的全局和局部动态累积碳减排效应。实证结果表明:各区域第一产业产值增加降低碳强度的作用稍大于第三产业,而第二产业发展对GDP的贡献要小于其对CO2排放量的影响;从即期效应看,西南区域第一产业产值增加和第二产业产值减少对碳减排的促进作用较大,南部沿海第三产业产值变动碳减排效应也较大,此区域对全国碳减排目标实现区域有较大动态累积作用;京津区域为短期内产业结构变动碳减排潜力较大的区域,从累积效果看,西南区域和南部沿海区域产业结构变动的碳减排潜力较大。东部沿海区域和南部沿海区域碳排放易受其他区域产业结构调整的不利影响。
A mathematical model, which can reflect the dynamic relationships between output changes of different industrial sectors in each area and carbon emissions of every area, is constructed in this paper. Using the model, global and local dynamic cumulative effects of industrial changes in regions on carbon emission are empirically studied. The results show that the role in reducing the carbon intensity of the first industry output increase is slightly larger than the third industry, while the second industry contribution to GDP is less than its effect on total CO2 emissions. From the spot effect, industrial output increase of the first and second industry in the southwest area plays a larger role in carbon emissions reduction. Output changes of the third industry in the southern area have a larger carbon reduction effect. There is also a larger dynamically cumulative effect in this area on the achievement of national carbon reduction targets. Industrial restructure in Beijing-Tianjin area has the largest carbon emission reduction potential in a short period, but the southwest and southern areas have more significant cumulative effects in the long term because of their largest potential for carbon reduction in the industrial structure changes. Carbon emissions situations of the eastern area and the southern area are vulnerable to the adverse effects of industrial restructuring in other regions.
出处
《经济评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第4期31-44,共14页
Economic Review
基金
中央高校基本业务费"产业结构低碳化减排敏感性的时空分异特征研究"(项目号:N130323009)
河北省自然科学基金项目"京津冀一体化下河北省承接产业转移与产业结构动态演化升级研究"(项目号:G2015501064)
河北省社会科学基金项目"基于动态碳减排效应的河北省产业结构调整研究"(项目号:HB14YJ097)
东北大学秦皇岛分校人文社科重点项目"产业结构升级目标下河北省承接产业转移模式与重点产业选择"(XNR201502)的资助
关键词
产业产值变动
碳减排
动态累积作用
区域间投入产出关系
Changes of Industry Output, Carbon Emissions, Dynamically Cumulative Effects,Inter-regional Input-output Relationships
