摘要
冰川湖突发性洪水具有强烈的随机性和不确定性文章以天山麦兹巴赫冰川湖突发洪水为例， 应用其近４０ ａ 来实测的 ３７ 次冰川突发洪水的洪峰流量等实测资料， 从洪水时间序列出发， 应用非线性动力系统重构技术，探讨了冰川湖突发洪水的分形特征，计算得出了关联分维数 Ｄ２ 和 Ｋｏｌｏｍ ｏｇｏｒｏｖ 熵结果表明， 冰川湖突发洪水的时序分布具有分形特征，
Jkulhlaups have stochastic feature and uncertainty Based on the statistical data of 37 peak discharges of Jkulhlaups from the Lake Mertzbakher of Tianshan Mountains in recent 40 years, the fractal characteristics of the Jkulhlaups are analyzed from a time series of the Jkulhlaups, and the correlation dimension (D 2) and Kolomogorov entropy are calculated by using the methods of nonlinear dynamic system rebuilding The experimental results show that the temporal distribution of the Jkulhlaups has fractal characteristics and the complex hydrological phenomena of Jkulhlaups may result from the evolution of inherent nonlinear dynamic system The obtained conclusions will be a scientific basis for establishing the time-series forecast model of Jkulhlaups
出处
《冰川冻土》
CSCD
北大核心
1999年第3期253-256,共4页
Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology
基金
中国科学院 "西部之光"资助项目
