摘要
本文利用天山北坡四棵树河冰湖突发洪水洪峰流量时间序列，从吸引子分维数Ｄ_２和Ｋｏｌｏｍｏｇｏｒｏｖ 熵等方面分析了洪峰流量变化的混饨性质。初步结果表明，河冰湖突发洪 水时序分布具有分形特征，且洪峰流量的变化是一个确定性的低维混沌吸引子。文中得出该混沌动力系统可预报时间的平均长度Ｔｐ约为７ｄ，这与实际情况比较接近。
As a special and complicated hydrology process, the Ice-dammed Lake Outburst Floods is a typical disordered phenomenon of natural system. In this paper, taking the Sikeshu Ice- dammed Lake Outburst Floods in northern slope of Tianshan, a typical inordinate phenomenon of natural system, as an example, the process and the formative Chaos Mechanism of Ice- dammed Lake Outburst floods are discussed in the aspects of correlation fractal dimension D_2 and Kolomogorov entropy K by analyzing the time-series (from 1970 to 1987) of the Floods. The following results have been made by reconstructing spatial attrator. Results show: 1) the time-series distribution of Sikeshu River Ice-dammed Lake Outburst Floods has some characteristics of Chaos dynamic system because each curve of the relationship between Inr_o and Inc(r) has a straight line part, which is just the nonscale range of self-similarity. Moreover, it can be found that the variation of flood peak discharge is a definite low-dimension chaos attractor; 2) the curve of relationship between m and D_2 shows that the correlation fractal dimension D_2 will be 1. 47 when m≥9, which indicates the number of effective freedom of the latent dynamic system of the Sikeshu Ice-dammed Lake Outburst Floods is 9; 3) The curve of relationship between K and m shows that k = 0. 142, with which the value of predicable average length of the Sikeshu Ice-dammed Lake Outburst Floods can be estimated.
出处
《干旱区地理》
CSCD
北大核心
1999年第2期77-82,共6页
Arid Land Geography
基金
中国科学院"西部之光"资助
关键词
河冰湖
突发洪水
低维吸引子
混沌
洪水预报
Ice-dammed Lake Outburst Floods
Reconstruct Spatial Attractor
Low- dimension Attractor
