摘要
目的 了解福建省恶性肿瘤死亡率变化规律及其趋势。 方法 采用福建省 1986～ 1995年的全死因抽样调查资料对城市和农村的恶性肿瘤死亡率进行流行病学分析 ,并用灰色系统 GM( 1,1)模型对福建省 2 0 0 1年恶性肿瘤流行趋势作出预测。 结果 城市恶性肿瘤死亡率从 1986年的 130 .2 /10万下降到 1995年的 10 9.2 /10万 ,同期农村从 79.9/10万上升到 110 .0 /10万。预测到2 0 0 1年福建省城市和农村恶性肿瘤的死亡率将分别达到 86.1/10万和 14 3.9/10万。 结论 城市恶性肿瘤死亡率呈下降趋势 ,农村恶性肿瘤死亡率呈上升趋势。应重视农村恶性肿瘤的防治。
To study the mortality and trend of malignant tumor from 1986 to 1995 in Fujian \ Methods\ Epidemiological method was used to analyse the mortality of malignant tumor in 1986~1995 in Fujian,the data came from sampling survey of all death causes The grey dynamic model GM(1,1) was used to predict the mortality trend of malignant tumor in cities and countrysides in 1996~2001 \ Results\ The malignant tumor mortality in recent ten years was decreasing continuously,from 130 2/100 000 in 1986 to 109 2/100 000 in 1995 in cities, but it was increasing from 79 9/100 000 in 1986 to 110 0/100 000 in 1995 in rural areas It was predicted that up to 2001 the malignant tumor mortality in Fujian would fall to 86 1/100 000 and rise to 143 9/100 000 in cities and countrysides respectively \ Conclusion\ The malignant tumor mortality will decrease in cities and increase in rural areas Our goverment should pay attention to prevention of malignant tumor in rural areas \;
出处
《福建医科大学学报》
1999年第3期340-343,共4页
Journal of Fujian Medical University
关键词
恶性肿瘤
死亡率
预测
福建
malignant tumor
mortality
prediction
