摘要
目的分析山东省1970-2005年食管癌死亡率随年龄及时间的变化趋势。方法利用1970-2005年4次全死因调查资料,计算食管癌死亡率和标化死亡率,利用Joinpoint回归软件分析食管癌死亡率的升降速率。结果 1970-2005年间食管癌标化死亡率表现总体呈下降趋势,1970-1987,1987-1990和1990-2005年3个时期中的年均变化率分别为-0.61%(P<0.05),2.33%(P>0.05)和-1.42%(P<0.05);食管癌死亡率随年龄的增长而升高,在各个年龄段上男性死亡率高于女性。结论山东省食管癌标化死亡率在该期间基本呈下降趋势,与食管癌高发区相似。
Objective To analyze the trend of esophageal cancer mortality based on death monitoring data from 1970 to 2005 in Shandong province.Methods All-cause mortality data between 1970 and 2005 were collected.Then crude mortality rate of esophageal cancer and standardized mortality rates by the percentages of Chinese population in 1964 and world population in 1976 were calculated.The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the fluctuation and long-term trend of standardized mortality rate of esophageal cancer.Results In general,the standardized mortality rate of esophageal cancer declined in the period of 1970-2005.Joinpoint analysis showed that the annual change velocity of the standardized mortality rate by the percentages of world population in 1976 was-0.61%（P 0.05）,2.33%（P 0.05）,and-1.42%（P 0.05） in periods of 1970-1987,1987-1990,and 1990-2005,respectively.The mortality rate increased with the increase of age and was higher in females than in males at all age groups.Conclusion The standardized mortality of esophageal cancer in residents of Shandong province descended on the whole during 1970-2005 and the trend was similar to that of high esophageal cancer areas.It is necessary to study the influencing factors to decrease the incidence of esophageal cancer.
出处
《中国公共卫生》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第7期801-803,共3页
Chinese Journal of Public Health
基金
国家自然科学基金(30571601)
山东省2004年科学技术发展(重大专项部分)项目(2004GG1108039)
2007年度山东省博士后创新项目专项资金资助(200702034)
关键词
食管癌
死亡率
变化趋势
esophageal cancer
mortality
change trend
