摘要
目的国内在研究生招生与毕业人数发展趋势推测领域的研究较少,该研究对研究生招生及就业形势分析具有重要指导意义。文中对国内研究生招生、毕业人数横向及纵向发展趋势进行拟合与推测,以期对该领域研究提供一定参考。方法收集1998至2008年国内研究生招生、毕业人数数据。以计算相关系数及曲线拟合的方式描述研究生招生及毕业人数之间的横向关系;自主构建数学模型分别对国内研究生招生、毕业人数纵向发展趋势进行拟合与推测。结果 1998至2008年国内研究生招生及毕业人数相关系数r=0.936,P<0.01。曲线拟合中以3次曲线拟合效果最好,其方程为:Y=-16.531+6.1546X-0.2357X2-0.0031X3。构建数学模型分别对研究生招生及毕业人数纵向发展趋势进行拟合,拟合评价指标误差平方和(sum of squares of error,SSE)、误差标准差(relative standard error,RSE)、平均绝对误差(mean absolute devia-tion,MAD)和平均相对误差(average relative error,ARE)计算结果均呈现较小误差。模型可对未来5年国内研究生招生、毕业人数进行初步推测。结论 1998至2008年国内研究生招生、毕业人数均呈不断增长趋势。相关系数计算结果显示两者之间呈高度正相关,两者横向关系可用曲线拟合描述。所构建数学模型具有较高的拟合精确度和一定通用性,可分别对研究生招生及毕业人数纵向发展趋势进行拟合。模型对研究生招生及毕业人数纵向发展趋势推测结果显示,未来5年国内研究生招生及毕业人数将保持一定比例稳步增长。
Objective The study of speculating the trend of the number of post-graduate enrollment and the number of graduates is fewer in China.This study has important guiding significance to post-graduate enrollment and employment situation analysis.This article employs curve fitting and mathematical modeling methods to fit and speculate the number of post-graduate enrollment and the trends of graduates′ number in the horizontal and vertical development,in order to provide some reference in this field.Methods Based on the numbers of post-graduate enrollment and the numbers of graduates from 1998 to 2008 collected and published by the National Bureau of Statistics,P.R.China,this paper calculated the correlation coefficient,employed curve fitting to describe the horizontal relationship between the number of post-graduate enrollment and the number of graduates,and constructed a mathematical model to fit and speculate the vertical relationship between the number of graduate enrollment and the trends of graduates′ number.Results The result of correlation coefficient about the number of post-graduate enrollment and the number of graduates from 1998 to 2008 is R= 0.936,P0.01.Cubic curve is the best method in curve fitting,the equation is Y=-16.531＋6.1546X-0.2357X2-0.0031X3.The evaluate indexes-SSE,RSE,MAD and ARE-show minor errors in the calculating results.This model can make elementary speculation on the numbers in the future five years.Conclusion Both the post-graduate enrollment and the graduates show increasing patterns from 1998 to 2008.The result of correlation coefficient shows positive correlation in height,and the horizontal relationships of them can be described by curve fitting.The mathematical model possesses high fitting accuracy and certain versatility,which can separately fit the developing trend of the number of the post-graduate enrollment and the graduates.The forecasting result of the trend by the model shows that the number of the Chinese post-graduate enrollment and the number of the graduates in the
出处
《医学研究生学报》
CAS
2011年第1期67-71,共5页
Journal of Medical Postgraduates
基金
贵州省卫生厅科研计划基金[黔卫发2006]
关键词
研究生
招生
毕业
趋势
拟合
推测
Post-graduate
Enrollment
Graduate
Trend
Fitting
Speculation
