摘要
对成都市月供水量时序进行周期分析。在利用对数变换后的回归模型基础上,建立ARMA(1,5)时间序列模型,给出了月供水量时序的预测模型,并根据此模型对2010年全年月供水量进行预测。实例表明:本文提出的基于对数回归-ARMA月供水时序周期预测模型,能更好地挖掘供水量时序的规律。
This article analyzed the monthly supply quantities in Chengdu for time series cycle,based on using the log transformed regression model to establish ARMA（1,5） time series model,given the monthly supply quantities of time series prediction model.According to this model the monthly supply quantities in 2010 was predicted.The example has shown that this prediction model can be better used to find the regulation of supply quantities of time series based on logrithmic regression ARMA monthly supply.
出处
《水资源与水工程学报》
2010年第6期19-21,25,共4页
Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering
基金
四川省软科学研究计划项目(09RKX0027)
