摘要
随着我国经济快速增长、居民收入水平的显著提高,生活电力消费量快速增长。本文以1983-2006年我国人均生活电力消费量的历史数据为基础,根据趋势图拟合出与之相似的指数回归曲线,然后对其残差序列进行分析和识别,找出适合我国人均生活电力消费量的指数回归-ARMA模型,并根据此模型进行预测分析。
With the rapid increase of our country s economy and the marked improvement of the people s living standard,the electricity consumption of households increased rapidly.Based on the historical data from 1983 to 2006 of the annual per capita electricity consumption of households,we fit approximate exponential regressive curve by trend graph,and then analyzed the residual series using time series theory. At last,we established an Exponential Regression-ARMA（p,q） Model which applied to annual per capita electricity consumption of households.
出处
《数理统计与管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第6期1122-1126,共5页
Journal of Applied Statistics and Management
基金
教育部人文社科规划基金项目(项目编号:07JA910003)
江苏省教育厅重点项目(项目编号:07SJB90006)
关键词
指数回归
ARMA模型
人均电力消费量
ARMA model
exponential regression
annual per capita electricity consumption
