摘要
随着中国经济发展,石油的需求急剧增加。利用石油消费的历史数据,构建了二次趋势-ARMA(2,1)石油需求组合预测模型,并对ARMA模型和组合模型的预测精度进行了比较,证明该组合模型的预测精度较高,可以作为我国未来石油需求预测的有效工具。
As rapid development of Chinese economy,oil demand has been increasing day by day. In this paper, by referring to historical data,we establish Integrated Model of Chinese oil demand, which functions by the combination of ARMA（2,1） Model and the second trend.And we make concrete comparison of ARMA Model and Integrated Model,it has been proved that the Integrated Model can forecast oil demand more accurately. Based on the analysis, we propose Integrated Model as an effective tool to predict Chinese futureoil demand.
出处
《价值工程》
2008年第10期13-15,共3页
Value Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(70671025)
