摘要
利用协整理论、误差修整模型和Granger因果检验理论,对中国国内旅游消费与居民收入水平之间的关系进行了实证研究,并对城镇和农村居民收入水平与旅游消费之间关系进行了对比分析。结果表明,旅游消费和居民收入之间是长期均衡关系,农村居民收入对旅游消费的促进作用更加明显于城镇居民。
The relationship of resident income level and tourism consumption is one of hot issues in the economics research. In this paper,cointegration analysis,error correction model and Granger causality estimation were used to test the relationship of China＇s resident income level and tourism consumption, based on the data from 1994 to 2008. Econometric software-Eviews 5.0 was used in calculation process. All the empirical studies were experienced several steps including unit root test on income level and tourism consumption, cointegration test, first order and second order error correction model as well as Granger causality estimation. The empirical test showed that although the short-run fluctuation exists, there is a stable equilibrium relation between China＇s income level and tourism consumption in the long run. In addition,on the comparison of urban residents and rural residents, it concluded that the rural residents＇ income plays more significant role in promoting tourism consumption than the urban residents do. Accordingly the paper proposed increasing income of rural residents and narrowing income gap between urban and rural residents to increase tourism spending.
出处
《地理与地理信息科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第6期92-95,101,共5页
Geography and Geo-Information Science
基金
2010年度河北省社会科学基金项目"河北省发展低碳旅游的影响因素及对策研究"(HB10XGL024)
关键词
旅游消费
居民收入
协整检验
误差修正模型
tourism consumption
resident income level
cointegration test
error correction model
