摘要
通过就业结构演变驱动旅游需求的简单反馈模型假设,利用单位根检验(unit root test)、协整检验(cointegra-tion test)和格兰杰因果检验(Granger causality test)计量方法,以我国1984-2006年三大产业的就业人数和国内旅游人次变动数据为依据,探讨国内就业结构演变与旅游需求变化的关系。实证结果表明,三大产业就业结构演变与国内旅游人次的变化具有很强的相关性,其间存在长期稳定的均衡关系且具有正负增长递减的规律;第一产业就业人数的减少是国内旅游需求增长的重要驱动因素。
Based on the hypothesis of positive feedbacks model of employment structure and tourist demand, the relationship between the evolvement of employment structure and domestic tourist demand was analyzed using unit root test, cointegration test and Granger causality test and the statistics results of employment structure and domestic tourists from 1984 to 2006. The empirical results showed that a strong correlativity between the employment structure and the domestic tourists existed,and there were not only a long term cointegration,but also a law of positive and negative diminishing growth between them. At the same time, the evidence discovered that the decrease of the employment in the primal industry drove the increase of domestic tourists.
出处
《地理与地理信息科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第5期84-88,107,共6页
Geography and Geo-Information Science
