摘要
基于2001-2009年的时间序列数据,在平稳性检验的基础上,利用VAR模型分析我国房地产价格和金融机构信贷之间的关系。结果发现:房屋销售价格指数的增长对于金融机构贷款的增长具有很大的推动作用,但金融机构信贷的增加对房屋销售价格指数的上涨并没有呈现显著的促进作用。由此提出政策建议:一是保证信贷总量适度增长,保持房贷合理占比;二是规范行业秩序,完善房地产市场调节机制。
Based on the 2001-2009 time series data,it is found that there was no two-way causality between the real estate price index and the increase rate of loans made by the financial institutions.In the past ten years,the real estate price index pushed up the change of the loan increase rate greatly.However,the change of the loan increase rate only changed the real estate price to a quite limited extent.Accordingly,this paper proposes that the government should further supervise real estate loans to control risk,keep the enhancement of the aggregate credit supply,optimize the structure of the credit,and further control real estate price.
出处
《四川大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第4期108-114,共7页
Journal of Sichuan University：Philosophy and Social Science Edition
关键词
房地产价格
金融机构信贷
信贷总量
行业秩序
real estate price
loans of financial institutions
relationship
empirical analysis
