摘要
本文在理论分析基础上,运用脉冲响应对货币政策对不同城市商品住宅市场的作用进行了实证分析。研究结果表明货币政策对不同城市商品住宅市场的影响差异化比较大,对房价的影响期限长,对住宅销售面积的影响期限短,对房价的影响各个城市差异性较大,而对销售面积的影响各城市同质性较强。随后本文又从各个城市商品住宅市场供求关系入手对出现此种现象的原因进行了深入分析。最后得出结论:政府的调控政策则在很大程度上引导房价一定时期的走势,但最终市场供求状况将是影响房价与地价进一步走向的决定性因素;基于我国区域房地产市场差异化较大这种具体国情,我国的房地产宏观调控应该探讨走差异化调控这一思路。
Based on theoretical analysis, this paper makes an empirical research into the impact of monetary policy on different urban commodity residential markets of ten cities in China by employing VAR and the impulse response functions. The results demonstrate that the monetary policy has different impacts on different urban commodity residential markets, especially on the housing prices of all the cities. To make clear what cause the differentiated impacts, the paper looks into the supply/demand relationship and finds that policies do affect the housing prices to a great extent, but the dominant determinant in the long run is still the supply and demand factors that essentially affect the housing prices and land price. Finally, policy suggestions are provided based on the research results.
出处
《管理评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第10期3-9,156,共8页
Management Review
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71173213)
中国科学院预测科学研究中心主任基金项目(0929018ED2)
