摘要
中国经济增长模式的高投资特征与高储蓄、高密度的信贷支持密切相关,对分省信贷资源分布及其动态配置状态如何影响各省投资的内在机理进行研究十分必要。本文从理论层面揭示了信贷和投资存在均衡形式转换的特征事实,然后通过应用分省数据的面板门槛计量模型发现,中国分省的信贷和投资变量之间存在所谓的"门槛效应",即门槛值将信贷变量分成不同的区制,在不同的区制内投资和信贷的关系呈现出不同的模式;信贷与投资的关联机制受政府对信贷资源配置状态的干预影响显著;在地方政府用来支持经济发展的手段中,财政投入和信贷干预性的配置呈现出相互替代的特征。这间接说明当前信贷资源配置的失衡问题,应当加快信贷配置和投资领域市场化改革。
This paper empirically studies the multi-equilibrium relationship of credit and investment by using panel threshold model based on the sample of Chinese sub-provincial data. And the so-called ＂threshold effect＂ is verified, that is, the threshold variable of credit system is divided into different regimes, the relationship between investment and credit shows a different pattern among different regimes, which has given support to the hypothesis of ＂blessing-in-low-regime＂ and ＂curse-in-high-regime＂. This conclusion indirectly indicates the current disequilibrium in the credit resources allocation, and we should speed up the reform of market-oriented investment system and credit allocation mechanisms.
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第5期84-101,共18页
Journal of Financial Research
关键词
信贷配置
投资
政府干预
面板门槛模型
credit allocation, investment, government intervention, panel threshold model
