摘要
针对灰色预测模型在区域物流中不能有效解决因季节变动而引起的物流需求变化的问题,引入季节指数的概念,构建基于灰色模型和季节指数的物流需求预测模型,并给出了相应的具体实施方案。最后以哈尔滨市物流需求统计数据为例,对所提方法进行了仿真分析,仿真结果表明了该方法的有效性和可行性。
In view of the inability of gray forecasting model to accommodate logistics demand fluctuation caused by seasonal variance, the paper introduces the concept of seasonal index, establishes a logistics demand forecasting model based on gray model and seasonal index and lays out the specific implementation scheme. Finally a simulation analysis is carried out using statistics of Harbin logistics demand, with results verifying the effectiveness and feasibility of the method.
出处
《物流技术》
2010年第8期41-42,46,共3页
Logistics Technology
基金
黑龙江省教育厅人文社科项目(11542057)
黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目(08B001)
2008哈尔滨商业大学青年骨干教师科研创新项目
关键词
灰色模型
季节指数
物流需求预测
gray model
seasonal index
logistics demand forecasting
