摘要
牺牲率指实际产出损失与趋势通货膨胀率变化量的比率,用来衡量降低通货膨胀成本。Ball(1994)假设通货收缩周期终点后四个季度回到潜在产出,忽视了长期影响。本文从理论上证实未考虑长期影响将会低估牺牲率,并采用HP滤波估计中国季度和年度牺牲率分别为1.85和2.68,高于传统方法的0.28和0.3。季度牺牲率低于G7国家的平均水平,实证研究发现通货收缩速度、初始趋势通货膨胀率和贸易开放度是影响牺牲率水平的重要因素。
Sacrifice ratios is the cost of disinflation, which is defined as a ratio of the loss of output to the change of trend inflation. Ball (1994) assumes real output returns to its potential level four quarters after the end of an episode, which does not account for the long- lived effect. The article contains a theoretical model to explain sacrifice ratio less than that not taking into account for the long- lived effect, and developes new method of HP filter to measure sacrifice ratios: the average sacrifice ratio that account for long- lived effect are 1.85 and 2. 68 for quarterly and yearly disinflation episodes, which is higher than 0.28 and 0. 3 respectively measured by Ball (1994) . The empirical analysis indicates that speed of disinflation, initial trend inflation and openness are major influencing cause of the sacrifice ratio.
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第3期119-132,146,共15页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
2009年教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目青年项目
2008年国家自然科学基金(70803055)
2008年广东省自然科学基金的资助
关键词
牺牲率
长期影响
潜在产出
HP滤渡
Sacrifice Ratios
Long - lived Effect
Potential Output
HP Filter