摘要
本文选取我国2007—2012年分地区城镇居民消费面板数据,构建双重差分模型,通过HP滤波和面板数据回归等方法,考察消费金融公司试点地区居民消费行为的变化。研究表明:消费金融公司对上海市的消费拉动较为强烈,北京市和天津市反应较为一般,而四川省收效甚微。其主要作用于家庭设备类、通讯类、娱乐类和其他一般消费类支出,并不影响衣着类消费。同时,在跨期消费方面,上海市和四川省倾向于超前消费,北京市所受影响不大,而天津市则表现为延期消费。最后,根据实证结果,本文提出了加强管理监督、积极开发新产品、改善居民消费习惯等具有创新观点的政策建议。
In this paper, we take the regional residents＇ consumption panel data as research objectives in the earlier six years since 2007and utilize the method of Difference in Difference and Hodrick Prescott Filter for regression, which results in the changes of the residents＇ consumption in those four pilot areas with the consumer finance company. It was found that the consumer finance company has cause a significant influence on the consumption in Shanghai; however, there are some general reflections in Beijing and Tianjin. Compared with the other three pilot areas, it is almost useless in Sichuan Province. Furthermore, it is worth noting that the principal influence of the consumer finance company acts on some general consumption outcome such as grocery, house alliance, communications and entertainments, which excludes the consumption on clothing. In concern of inter-temporal consumption, future consumption locates in Shanghai and Sichuan, which is on the contrary in Tianjin and is weaken in Beijing. Finally, this paper proposes some policy suggestions based on the resuh of empirical research.
出处
《中国软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第7期115-127,共13页
China Soft Science
关键词
消费金融公司
消费信贷
居民消费
跨期消费
地区差异
consumer finance company
consumption credit
household consumption
inter-temporal consumption
regional difference
