摘要
过度自信是个体高估自身判断精确度的一种认知偏差。过高估计和过高定位作为过度自信的两种主要类型被认为是个体在评价其绝对能力和相对能力时的表现。一般认为信息加工的偏差与判断误差的无偏性是造成过高估计的主要原因。自我提升动机、权重差异与信息的差异被认为是产生过高定位的原因。但是过度自信的这两种类型却在不同难度的任务中出现了分离现象。最近,研究者提出了贝叶斯过度自信,用贝叶斯推理对不同任务中二者的分离进行了整合。过度自信产生的原因和内在心理机制、过度自信对决策的影响以及过度自信中的个体差异研究将会成为该领域日后研究的趋势。
Overconfidence is a cognitive bias in which people overestimate their own accuracy. Overestimate and overplacement are considered as two central types of overconfidence occurred when individual assess his/her absolute ability and relative ability. In general, biases in information processing and effects of unbiased judgmental error are considered as the main reasons for overconfidence. Reasons for overplacement including motivation of selfenhancement, differential weighting and differential information have been considered. But those two types of overconfidence present separate phenomena in tasks with different difficulties. Recently, Bayesian overconfidence is put forward. The separations of two types of overconfidence in tasks with different difficulties are integrated by using Bayesian inference. The reason and internal psychological mechanism of overconfidence, the influence of overconfidence on decision-making, also the individual differences research in overconfidence will be the focus of this field in the future.
出处
《心理与行为研究》
CSSCI
2009年第3期236-240,共5页
Studies of Psychology and Behavior
