摘要
旅游模拟是认识旅游复杂系统内部要素相互作用及其演化发展的重要方法。国际上对旅游模拟的研究始于1970s的荒野使用模型(WUSM),经缓慢发展在1990s分化出现了Extend和RBSim两个代表性旅游模拟模型,其历史轨迹表明,基于Agent建模(ABM)将成为一种重要的旅游模拟工具。目前,旅游模拟可用的ABM平台(软件)日趋成熟,一个完整的ABM系统包括模型输入、规则及模型输出3个基本部分,其中"规则"的制定是ABM的核心,也是ABM实现对复杂系统"局部简单行为导致宏观复杂现象"进行模拟的关键。今后ABM将通过与3S技术的进一步结合和对CA模拟的深度融合而呈现更强大的旅游模拟能力,并在应用领域突破荒野旅游地游憩使用模拟的单一格局,开辟旅游者行为、旅游地演化和旅游应急管理等旅游模拟新领域。
Tourism simulation is an important method to investigate the internal factors＇ interaction and evolution of tourism complex systems. The earliest study of tourism simulation can be dated from the development of Wilderness Use Simulation Model （WUSM） in 1970s. After a long period of slow development,it bifurcated into two representative simulation models （Extend and RBSim） when it comes to 1990s. The contrail of tourism simulation history shows that Agent-Based Modeling （ABM） will eventually become a major tool for tourism research. At present, the ABM platforms （software）, available for tourism simulation, have become increasingly mature. An ABM model includes three basic parts of model input, conduct rules and model outputs and ＂rules＂ making is not only the core of ABM, but also the key to simulate ＂simple local rules lead to complex macrophenomena＂. Looking into the future, ABM will take on powerful ability to tourism simulation, through further integrating with 3S and CA simulation technologies. There also will be breakthrough in the application of ABM in addition to the single pattern of wilderness recreation simulation, and eventually make great achievement in the broad research field of tourist behavior, tourism geographical evolution and tourism emergency management.
出处
《地理与地理信息科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第5期102-107,共6页
Geography and Geo-Information Science
关键词
旅游系统
ABM
旅游模拟
tourism system
Agent-Based Modeling
tourism simulation
