摘要
本文通过构建境外汇款与中国宏观经济变量之间的协整方程,实证分析境外汇款流入的影响因素。研究表明,境外汇款流动是顺经济周期的,人民币升值压力是影响境外汇款流入的重要因素。由于我国利率没有完全市场化,利差对境外汇款影响较小。顺经济周期性一方面对境外汇款的利他性提出了质疑,同时也表明境外汇款流入具有很强的投机性。
In this paper, the authors build up a cointegration equation to estimate the influence of Chinese macroeconomic variables on overseas remittance receipts. The study result shows that overseas remittance receipts are procyclical and the appreciation pressure of RMB is one of the important factors for the overseas remittance receipts. Owning to the absence of marketization of interest rate, the influence of interest rate on overseas remittance receipts is very small. The procyclicality of overseas remittances calls into the notion that overseas remittances are largely motivated by altruism. At the same time, it means that overseas remittances may be used as a tool of speculation.
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第12期126-134,共9页
Journal of Financial Research
关键词
境外汇款
热钱
人民币升值压力
协整
remittances, hot money, appreciation pressure of RMB, cointegration
