摘要
弹性系数法是一种广泛使用的需水量预测方法,其建立模型的关键步骤是提取合理的需水量影响因素.为了有效地提取需水量的主要影响因素,采用灰色关联法,分析了弹性系数模型变量之间的关系,提出了自然对数预处理方法,并以郑州市生活需水量预测为例,进行方法的比较分析.结果表明该方法是合理和有效的,进一步丰富了灰色关联分析法的应用.需水量预测结果也比较符合实际情况,可为郑州市水资源规划提供参考依据.
Elastic coefficient method is one of the most popular methods for predicting water demand, and the key step in this modeling procedure is to extract appropriate factors that affect the water demand in that region. To efficiently extract these main factors, variables in the elastic coefficient model were analyzed by using the tool of grey relational analysis, and consequently a logarithmic data pretreatment method was put forward. Zhengzhou was taken as the example for verifying the model. The results show that this method is reasonable and necessary, improves the application of grey relational analysis, and has reference value for other factor extracting methods as well. The forecasting results of the water demand are satisfactorially with actual condition, and thus also have certain reference value for the water resource planning in Zhengzhou.
出处
《郑州大学学报（工学版）》
CAS
2008年第2期95-98,113,共5页
Journal of Zhengzhou University（Engineering Science）
基金
国家科技支撑计划项目资助(2006BA06B08-05)
关键词
需水预测
生活需水
因素提取
灰色关联
数据预处理
water demand forecast
domestic water demand
factor extracting
grey relational analysis
datapretreatment
