摘要
利用1958—2012年博斯腾湖流域水文、气象与社会经济资料序列,采用灰色关联法分析了博斯腾湖水位变化特征及其影响因素。结果表明:(1)在过去半个多世纪,博斯腾湖水位经历了下降、上升、再下降3个阶段,各阶段内各驱动因素的权重不同;(2)博斯腾湖水位变化主要是入湖流量、降水及气温波动等自然因素和耕地面积、灌溉面积、灌溉引水量及灌溉净耗水量等人为因素共同作用的结果,特别是入湖流量变化是博斯腾湖水位升降的主要影响因素。1958—1987年,开都河处于偏枯年份,博斯腾湖水位呈缓慢下降的趋势,水位从1958年的1 048.00m下降至1987年的1 045.03m,平均水位为1 047.20m,这期间自然因素对水位的影响较大;1988—2002年,开都河处于丰水年,入湖水量较多,博斯腾湖水位呈快速上升趋势,水位从1988年的1 045.21m上升至2002年的1 048.60m,平均水位为1 046.80m,这期间人类活动对水位的影响开始增强,但自然因素对水位的影响仍强于人类活动对水位的影响;2003—2012年,入湖水量减少,博斯腾湖水位又呈急剧下降趋势,水位从2003年的1 048.55m下降至2012年的1 045.68m,这期间人类活动对水位的影响呈显著增加趋势;(3)1958—2012年博斯腾湖水位变化的主要驱动因素总体呈自然因素向人类活动的变化趋势。
The variation of Lake water level and its environmental change are unavoidable processes under climate changes and human activities in arid regions.In this paper,the variations and driving forces of water level of the Bosten Lake,the largest inland fresh water lake in China,were studied based on the observed hydrological,metrological and social-economic data of the lake during 1958-2012,and Gray correlation analysis was employed as an effective methodology to discriminate potential contributions of natural and social-economic factors to level fluctuating of the lake.The results showed that:(1)The lake experienced three phases of water level fluctuating such as forepart falling,then rising and declining again with different driving weights over the past half a century;(2)Results of Gray correlation analyses showed that,the variation of water level of the Lake was caused mainly by the co-effects of the variations of natural factors such as flows into the lake,precipitation and temperature,and human factors such as the changes in farmland area,especially,the variations of flows into the lake was the main driving factor that effects the variation of water level.Because of Kaidu River runoff kept low flow state during 1958-1987,the water level of the lake has slowly declined,the water level of the lake decreased from1 048.00 m in 1958 to 1 045.03 m in 1987,the average water level was about 1 047.20 m above sea level.The climate change is the most important factor to influence the declination of the lake level during this period;Kaidu River runoff kept high flow state during 1988-2002,and surface water inflow to the Bosten lake has increased.Contemporary,lake level raised significantly,the water level of the lake raised from1 045.21 m in1988 to 1 048.60 m in2002,the average water level was about 1 046.80 m above sea level.The impact of human activity on the water level during this period began to increase,but the impact of natural factors is still stronger than the impact of human activities on the water level;surface
出处
《中国沙漠》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第1期240-247,共8页
Journal of Desert Research
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目新疆联合基金项目(U1138302)
国家自然科学基金项目(41201032
41161007)
新疆研究生科研创新项目(XJGRI2014120)
新疆师范大学地理学博士点支撑学科开放课题基金项目(XJNU-GDDF-201311)
关键词
博斯腾湖
水位
驱动力
灰色关联法
Bosten Lake
water level variation
driving force analysis
gray correlation analysis
