摘要
以干旱区博斯腾湖为研究对象,依据博斯腾湖1956—2012年期间的水位监测数据,采用小波分析及MannKendall(M-K)趋势检验等统计学方法,揭示了近50a博斯腾湖水位变化趋势及规律。结果显示:博斯腾湖1956—2012年水位变化分为3个阶段下降(1956—1987年)—上升(1988—2002年)—下降(2003—2012年),其中1956—1987年水位下降了3.39m;1988—2002年上升了3.7m;2003—2012年再次下降了3.21m。水位总体上呈现出显著的下降趋势,且通过了α=0.05时的显著性检验。就其周期性变化规律而言,博斯腾湖水位存在18a的主周期,而38a的周期由于水位资料序列有限难以确定,需要更长的资料序列进行分析验证。
This paper was purposed to analyze the change characteristics of lake level in the Bosten Lake dur- ing the past 50 years. The lake is located in the arid area. In this paper, the methods of wavelet analysis and Mann Kendall test were employed, and the data of water level from 1956 to 2012 were also used to analyze the changes of lake level. The results show that the variations of lake level can be divided into three periods, falling （1956--1987）, rising（1988--2002） and falling （2003--2012）. To be specific, the lake level declined by 3.39 m from 1956 to 1987. Then, it rose by 3.7 m from 1988 to 2002. Afterwards, it declined again by 3.21 m from 2003 to 2012. Based on the Mann-Kendall test, the lake level shows the significant decreasing trend with a significance test at the leve of 0.05. The primary change period of lake level was 18 a by using the Morlet wavelet analysis. In addition, there was another period of 38 a in terms of the lake level. It was difficult to determine this period due to the limitation of lake level data series. Therefore, the more data series of lake levels need to be tested and verified.
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第2期52-57,共6页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2012CB723201)
水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目"小流域淤地坝坝系防洪风险评价技术项目"(201201084)
水利部黄土高原水土流失过程与控制重点实验室开放课题基金(2014003
2014004)
关键词
博斯腾湖
水位变化
小波分析
M—K趋势检验
Bosten Lake
water level variation
wavelet analysis
Mann-Kendall test
