摘要
房地产业的迅速繁荣能拉动宏观经济迅速增长,但过度注重其拉动作用的经济增长模式会带来房地产价格的不合理上升.本文通过建立VAR模型,通过脉冲响应函数与方差分解的方法,研究了GDP与居民可支配收入变化冲击对房地产价格的动态影响.实证结论表明:GDP变化所带来的冲击会给房地产价格带来一个长期的正向影响,短期内房地产价格被迅速拉升,但之后影响迅速减弱并长期维持在较低水平;居民可支配收入的增长会给房地产价格带来长期拉动作用,其影响持续上升;以投资拉动带来的GDP增加在短期内迅速拉升了地方房价;可支配收入增加是在长期推动房价上升的主要因素.
The prosperity of real estate industry always brings to the fast boom of economics. But the dependance of the increase of economics on the real estate investment will lead to the accelerating rise of housing price. Basing on the VAR model, we use the impulse response function and variance decomposition method to analyzed the dynamic effect of the change of GDP and income on the housing price. Our empirical result indicates that the change of GDP will bring the positive effect on housing price. The price will rise soon immediately, but will weaken in the long run inhabitants＇ income has the similer effect. But the price will first list and maintain longer. The increase of GDP that mainly depends on the investment impells the housing price, but increase of inhabitants＇ income is the dominate facter.
出处
《辽宁师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2008年第1期121-124,共4页
Journal of Liaoning Normal University:Natural Science Edition
关键词
宏观经济
房地产价格
脉冲响应函数
macroeconomics
housing price
impulse response function
