摘要
文章从"需求大于供给"的经验判断出发,借鉴国外经验,分析了中国商品房需求形成及其影响因素,并导出需求驱动的房价方程。依据2001—2007年的季度数据,运用误差修正模型分析需求驱动的房价上涨实质后发现:家庭可支配收入提高和商品房需求量增加是房价持续上涨的主要动力,购房贷款利率对房价的长短期波动都较弱;而扩大购房消费贷款规模抑制房价上涨的长期效应要小于短期的,可配合结构性供给增加,实施选择性信贷政策。
Based on the empirical judging of ＂demand is greater than supply＂ and the previous studies oversea,this paper analyzes the demand formation of commercial housing and its impact factors in China,and derives the inverted demand function of housing prices.Furthermore,the Error Correction Model is used to study the increase of demand-driven prices by the quarterly data in 2001-2007.The results show that the increases in household disposable incomes and demand for the commercial housing are the major driving forces to raise the housing prices continually,and the impacts of mortgage rates on house prices fluctuations are weak both in the short and long term.However,enlarging the mortgage size has less negative impact on the changes of housing prices in long term than in the short term.So the selective credit policies should be taken when there is an increase of the structural supply in commercial housing market.
出处
《重庆三峡学院学报》
2011年第1期53-58,共6页
Journal of Chongqing Three Gorges University
