摘要
从时空角度对大沽夹河水质演变规律及主要影响因素进行了探讨。结果表明,近20 a来大沽夹河水质无明显恶化趋势,总体状况良好;污染源以点污染源为主,其次为农业面污染源;选取的14个监测断面中,接近河流末端的福山水闸下断面污染最严重。通过建立灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,对大沽夹河流域未来5 a的水质演变趋势进行了预测,结果显示水质有好转趋势。
The water quality change pattern and its main effect factors are analyzed from the space and time development trend. The results show that the water quality of Dagujia river basin is not obvious trend of deterioration during 20 years and the general status are good. The main pollutant source is the point pollution source; the next is agriculture non-point pollution source. In choice of 14 monitoring locations, the water quality pollutant index of Fushan dam section is the highest. Based on established gray prediction model GM（1,1）, the change trend of water quality of Dagujia river basin is predicted for the future 5 years. The results show that the water quality has better development tendency.
出处
《水电能源科学》
2007年第6期20-24,共5页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(40101005)
关键词
水质演变
灰色预测
大沽夹河流域
change of water quality
gray prediction
Dagujia river basin
