摘要
从林业资源型城市伊春的经济系统结构分析出发,建立伊春市发展的系统动力学模型,动态地模拟出伊春市经济的发展状况,用量化的、模型的方法为实现伊春市的经济可持续发展提供数据支持。按照系统动力学解决问题的思路,分析了伊春市经济发展的系统结构,进而画出因果关系反馈图,确定系统模型流图,然后对模型各变量间的关系编写方程,其中模型的初始数据是以2000年为基准,模型中各参量的确定主要应用了平均值、趋势外推、一元回归、多元回归等统计方法,且运用了Vensim软件特有的LOOKUP等函数功能。通过动态模拟探讨了三种模式,对比它们之间参数变化的程度和模拟结果,得出伊春市的可持续协调发展模式。
According to the Analysis of the economical structure of the forestry - resource - type city of Yichun, Building the dynamic model of the economic sustainable development Yichun. Analyzes the system structure of the economic sustainable development in Yichun, draws the causal loops of the system and the flow diagram of the system, then input the equations of the variables. The initial data of the model is the data of 2000. The constant variables and the auxiliary variables are decided by the means of equal, trend extrapolation, one variable regression and more variables regression. The building of the model uses the softwar of Vensim＇ s LOOKUP etc. to help. Discussed the three models through the dynamic modeling, and compares the change of the varieties and the results, and concludes that the third model is the sustainable developing model.
出处
《中国林业经济》
2006年第6期15-18,26,共5页
China Forestry Economics
关键词
林业资源型城市
可持续发展
动态模拟
forestry - resource - type city
sustainable development
dynamic modeling
