摘要
本文根据中国经济自1998年以来的发展状况,提出了一个基于“政策冲击”的新型供给冲击假说——“资源供给冲击假说”,并尝试从资源供给冲击的角度重新理解中国经济在近年来所发生的一系列变化。本文指出,正是由于资源供给的正向冲击以及由此所引起的(负向或正向)需求冲击的综合作用,才构成了1998年以后中国经济的整个演变过程。1998年以后出现的所谓“缩长”现象,很大程度上可以通过资源供给冲击加以解释。正向资源供给冲击也是解释本轮投资扩张的重要原因。但是,由于正向资源供给冲击是以资源和要素所有者(或原使用者)的收入损失为代价,由此导致的负向需求冲击对经济发展的消极影响不容忽视。
This paper put forward a hypothesis of Resource Price Shock, and argues that the evolution of Chinese economy since 1998 can more likely be explained by the synthesized effect of positive and negative shocks from natural resource price. The high growth rate low inflation phenomenon during 1998～2003 can be captured to a great extent by a positive resource price shock. The positive resource price shock can also make clear the reason of recent investment expansion. However, the whole economy may eventually pay a heavy price for this positive resource price, because the low price of natural resource can only be obtained at the income loss of the original resource owner/user.
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2006年第6期3-13,共11页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
关键词
政策性供给冲击
资源供给
内生冲击
经济波动
Political Price Shock
Resource Supply
Endogenous Shock
Eco-nomic Fluctuation
