摘要
20世纪90年代以来,美国的“贸易赤字急剧扩大”和“新经济增长超长高速”二者长期并行不悖。作者探讨这个新现象背后的新机制,认为在世界经济信息化、全球化的新条件下,美国的“贸易赤字”可以促进“信息技术产业全球化”,可以提高“趋势劳动生产率”,可以配合美国的“国际宏观政策组合”,还可以与“外资流入”和“美元汇率走势”共同优化微观产业结构和保持宏观经济增长态势。作者还推测了美国“贸易赤字”的前景,认为“服务贸易顺差”将会进一步扩大,有可能在未来冲销“货物贸易逆差”。
Since the 1990s, the expanding U.S. trade deficit has paralleled peacefully the rapid growth of the New Economy. The author discusses the new mechanism underlying the new phenomena. The author argues that in the new environment of the global network economy, the U.S. trade deficit may promote the globalization of the IT industry, increase the trend in the direction of productivity, and be compatible with the composition of the U.S. international macro policy. With the help of foreign capital flows and the intervention of the exchange rate of the dollar, the trade deficit may also improve the international division of labor and the investment environment, adjust the industrial structure, and sustain the performance of the macro economy. Finally, in his forecast of the U.S. trade deficit, the author concludes that in the future the service trade surplus will increase and might offset the goods trade deficit.
出处
《世界经济与政治》
CSSCI
北大核心
2006年第4期68-72,共5页
World Economics and Politics
