摘要
目的 探讨流行性乙型脑炎(乙脑)发生率与预测因子的关系,为预测提供一种简单、行之有效的新方法。方法 首先计算历史上预测因子与发病率的联系数,根据联系数值的大小依次排列出最主要因子、次主要因子、再次主要因子,剔除联系数值为最小的次要因子;再把新近出现的预测因子观测值与历史上同类因子值相比较,与之最接近的因子值为该次预测用因子值,并根据该因子值与当时发病率的同一度建立预测方程,代入新因子值,解此方程得到预测值;当预测用因子数为 n′(n′≥2)时,取 n′个预测值的平均作为该次预测值。结果 应用以上预测方法预测某地某年乙脑,预测值与实际发生率很接近,仅相差0.0264/10万,准确率为97.94%。结论 可以应用基于联系数的主因子分析预测法预测乙脑。
Objective To detect the relations between incidence rate of the epidemical encephalitis B and related factors, to provide a simple, valid and practical new method for forecasting encephalitis B eipdemics. Methods Connection number between the incidence rate of encephalitis B and the historical forecast factors was computed,before ranking the first,second and the third principal factor,to remove the factor with the smallest value in the light of the connection number before comparing the newest value of forecast factors with the same kind of history while the most nearly value becoming the forecasting factor value and to establish a forecasting equation according to the factor value and the consistent degree of the incidence rate of encephalitis B at that time. Finally,to put into the new factor value to get this forecast value under this equation. Assuming that there are n′(n′≥2) forecast factors,this time forecast value can then be directly obtained from the average of these estimate values. Results Using above forecast method to forecast the incidence rate of encephalitis B at certain place and year,the predicting value is very much close to the actual incidence rate. Difference between the predicting value forecasted by the above-mentioned method and the actual incidence rate is only (0.0264/)(100 000) with an accurate rate of (97.94)%. Conclusion This principal factor analysis forecast method based on connection number in forecasting the incidence rate of encephalitis B prevention is acceptable.
出处
《中华流行病学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第3期218-220,共3页
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
