摘要
美国人口越来越多样化和老龄化,受教育程度提升并向城市集中。这些变化使民主党日益成为一个由少数族裔、年轻人、城市居民、受过大学教育的白人组成的选举联盟,而共和党日益依靠老年人、乡村居民、未受大学教育的白人。拜登在2020年大选中虽然流失了少量少数族裔选票,但增加了大量白人、年轻人和老龄人口选票。这种相对平衡的竞选策略使他能超越希拉里的失败并战胜特朗普,但拜登和民主党仍然未能获得稳固的多数,其胜利相当脆弱。未来的人口结构变化更有利于民主党,但共和党仍可能通过调整策略来组建新的胜选联盟。
The U.S.population is increasingly diverse and aging,with rising educational attainment and a concentration in cities.These changes have made the Democratic Party increasingly an electoral coalition of minorities,young people,urbanites and whites with a college degree,while the Republican Party increasingly relies on older,rural,and whites without a college degree.Biden lost a small number of minority votes in the 2020 presidential election,but added a large number of white,young,and older votes.This relatively balanced campaign strategy allowed him to outperform Hillary Clinton and defeat Trump,but Biden and the Democrats still failed to gain a solid majority and his victory was quite fragile.Future demographic changes favor the Democrats,but the Republicans may still be able to form a new winning coalition by adjusting their strategy.
出处
《美国问题研究》
2021年第1期76-91,215,共17页
Fudan American Review
基金
国家社科基金青年项目“美国的反全球化与民粹主义运动及其影响研究”(项目批准号:17CGJ029)的阶段性成果
