China's designation of the "21 st-century Maritime Silk Road"(MSR) region is of extraordinary significance to its maritime rights, transportation security, and socio-economic development. We developed a ...China's designation of the "21 st-century Maritime Silk Road"(MSR) region is of extraordinary significance to its maritime rights, transportation security, and socio-economic development. We developed a technical framework allowing the use of "big data" derived from the Automatic Identification System(AIS, an automatic ship-tracking network) for two purposes: the accurate mapping of oil tanker trajectories and the creation of heat maps showing the relative use of oil tanker routes and marine shipping chokepoints. We then applied these methods to 1.5 billion AIS records collected within the MSR in 2014 to statistically identify and analyze busy routes, areas, and chokepoints in this strategic region. Our results demonstrate that the proposed framework can provide an effective analysis of oil movements based on large-scale AIS datasets, helping researchers and policy makers better understand the footprint and strategic implications of maritime oil transportation in the MSR region.展开更多
I stepped down as president of the Institute for Systems Biol- ogy （ISB） on Jan 1, 2018. As I think about my 17-year term as President, I am astounded at how much I have learned, not only about science but also abou...I stepped down as president of the Institute for Systems Biol- ogy （ISB） on Jan 1, 2018. As I think about my 17-year term as President, I am astounded at how much I have learned, not only about science but also about, among other things, what it takes to build a unique world-class institution.展开更多
The IPCC AR6 assessment of the impacts and risks associated with projected climate changes for the 21st century is both alarming and ambiguous.According to computer projections,global surface temperature may warm from...The IPCC AR6 assessment of the impacts and risks associated with projected climate changes for the 21st century is both alarming and ambiguous.According to computer projections,global surface temperature may warm from 1.3℃to 8.0℃by 2100,depending on the global climate model(GCM)and the shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)scenario used for the simulations.Actual climate-change hazards are estimated to be high and very high if the global surface temperature rises,respectively,more than 2.0℃and 3.0℃above pre-industrial levels.Recent studies,however,showed that a substantial number of CMIP6 GCMs run“too hot”because they appear to be too sensitive to radiative forcing,and that the high/extreme emission scenarios SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 are to be rejected because judged to be unlikely and highly unlikely,respectively.Yet,the IPCC AR6 mostly focused on such alarmistic scenarios for risk assessments.This paper examines the impacts and risks of“realistic”climate change projections for the 21st century generated by assessing the theoretical models and integrating them with the existing empirical knowledge on global warming and the various natural cycles of climate change that have been recorded by a variety of scientists and historians.This is achieved by combining the SSP2-4.5 scenario(which is the most likely SSP according to the current policies reported by the International Energy Agency)and empirically optimized climate modeling.According to recent research,the GCM macro-ensemble that best hindcast the global surface warming observed from 1980 to 1990 to 2012–2022 should be made up of models that are characterized by a low equilibrium climate sensitivity(ECS)(1.5℃<ECS≤3.0℃),in contrast to the IPCC AR6 likely and very likely ECS ranges at 2.5–4.0℃and 2.0–5.0℃,respectively.I show that the low-ECS macro-GCM with the SSP2-4.5 scenario projects a global surface temperature warming of 1.68–3.09℃by 2080–2100 instead of 1.98–3.82℃obtained with the GCMs with ECS in the 2.5–4.0℃range.How展开更多
Purpose:We hope to provoke a conversation about preparing students for an uncertain future that unforeseeable technological innovations will transform in ways we cannot predict.The unprecedented disruption caused by t...Purpose:We hope to provoke a conversation about preparing students for an uncertain future that unforeseeable technological innovations will transform in ways we cannot predict.The unprecedented disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic makes this an opportune time to reconsiderall dimensions of education.Design/Approach/Methods:We present information on how technology is transforming virtually every aspect of our lives and the threats we face from social media,climate change,and growing inequality.We then analyze the adequacy of proposals for teaching new skills,such as 2Ist-Century Skills,to prepare students for a world of work that is changing at warp speed.Findings:Despite harbingers of a radically different future,most schools continue to operate much as they have for centuries,providing a one-size-fits-all education.Technology now enables an unprecedented degree of personalization.We can tailor learning opportunities to individual students'interests,talents,and potential with teachers serving as guides,resources,and critical friends.The Internet afford a cornucopia of learning opportunities-online courses,international experts,global collaborations,accessible databases,and libraries.Learning can occur virtually anywhere.Originality/Value:The future depends on decisions we are making today about education.The value of this article is that we call for rethinking every component of education rather than considering each element independently.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key R&D Plan(Grant No.2017YFB0504205)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41622109,41371017)
文摘China's designation of the "21 st-century Maritime Silk Road"(MSR) region is of extraordinary significance to its maritime rights, transportation security, and socio-economic development. We developed a technical framework allowing the use of "big data" derived from the Automatic Identification System(AIS, an automatic ship-tracking network) for two purposes: the accurate mapping of oil tanker trajectories and the creation of heat maps showing the relative use of oil tanker routes and marine shipping chokepoints. We then applied these methods to 1.5 billion AIS records collected within the MSR in 2014 to statistically identify and analyze busy routes, areas, and chokepoints in this strategic region. Our results demonstrate that the proposed framework can provide an effective analysis of oil movements based on large-scale AIS datasets, helping researchers and policy makers better understand the footprint and strategic implications of maritime oil transportation in the MSR region.
文摘I stepped down as president of the Institute for Systems Biol- ogy （ISB） on Jan 1, 2018. As I think about my 17-year term as President, I am astounded at how much I have learned, not only about science but also about, among other things, what it takes to build a unique world-class institution.
文摘The IPCC AR6 assessment of the impacts and risks associated with projected climate changes for the 21st century is both alarming and ambiguous.According to computer projections,global surface temperature may warm from 1.3℃to 8.0℃by 2100,depending on the global climate model(GCM)and the shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)scenario used for the simulations.Actual climate-change hazards are estimated to be high and very high if the global surface temperature rises,respectively,more than 2.0℃and 3.0℃above pre-industrial levels.Recent studies,however,showed that a substantial number of CMIP6 GCMs run“too hot”because they appear to be too sensitive to radiative forcing,and that the high/extreme emission scenarios SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 are to be rejected because judged to be unlikely and highly unlikely,respectively.Yet,the IPCC AR6 mostly focused on such alarmistic scenarios for risk assessments.This paper examines the impacts and risks of“realistic”climate change projections for the 21st century generated by assessing the theoretical models and integrating them with the existing empirical knowledge on global warming and the various natural cycles of climate change that have been recorded by a variety of scientists and historians.This is achieved by combining the SSP2-4.5 scenario(which is the most likely SSP according to the current policies reported by the International Energy Agency)and empirically optimized climate modeling.According to recent research,the GCM macro-ensemble that best hindcast the global surface warming observed from 1980 to 1990 to 2012–2022 should be made up of models that are characterized by a low equilibrium climate sensitivity(ECS)(1.5℃<ECS≤3.0℃),in contrast to the IPCC AR6 likely and very likely ECS ranges at 2.5–4.0℃and 2.0–5.0℃,respectively.I show that the low-ECS macro-GCM with the SSP2-4.5 scenario projects a global surface temperature warming of 1.68–3.09℃by 2080–2100 instead of 1.98–3.82℃obtained with the GCMs with ECS in the 2.5–4.0℃range.How
文摘Purpose:We hope to provoke a conversation about preparing students for an uncertain future that unforeseeable technological innovations will transform in ways we cannot predict.The unprecedented disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic makes this an opportune time to reconsiderall dimensions of education.Design/Approach/Methods:We present information on how technology is transforming virtually every aspect of our lives and the threats we face from social media,climate change,and growing inequality.We then analyze the adequacy of proposals for teaching new skills,such as 2Ist-Century Skills,to prepare students for a world of work that is changing at warp speed.Findings:Despite harbingers of a radically different future,most schools continue to operate much as they have for centuries,providing a one-size-fits-all education.Technology now enables an unprecedented degree of personalization.We can tailor learning opportunities to individual students'interests,talents,and potential with teachers serving as guides,resources,and critical friends.The Internet afford a cornucopia of learning opportunities-online courses,international experts,global collaborations,accessible databases,and libraries.Learning can occur virtually anywhere.Originality/Value:The future depends on decisions we are making today about education.The value of this article is that we call for rethinking every component of education rather than considering each element independently.
