摘要
"21世纪海上丝绸之路"战略为我国同东盟之间的经贸合作带来了新的机遇与挑战,准确把握我国与东盟的双边贸易关系对于深化两地经贸合作意义重大。笔者利用UNComtrade数据,选用多类指标,对我国同东盟贸易合作之间的竞争性、互补性、依存性与因果关系进行了探讨。研究发现:我国同东盟对外出口结构具有一定的相似性,竞争较为激烈;在一些商品类别上我国同东盟双边贸易互补性不断强化,具有广阔的合作空间;我国同东盟的贸易联系紧密,相互依存度高;我国贸易总额与东盟贸易总额、我国出口总额与东盟进口总额、我国进口总额与东盟出口总额之间均具有双边因果关系。应紧抓"21世纪海上丝绸之路"建设机遇,深化同东盟各成员国的经贸合作;明确中国—东盟双边贸易竞争性,拓宽贸易合作领域;重视中国—东盟自贸区互补性,加强区域能源合作;加强中国—东盟贸易依存关系,加快交通设施建设;利用中国—东盟双边贸易因果联系,加快自贸区升级版谈判。
The great strategy of ＂？the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road＂ has brought new opportunities and challenges for the economic and trade cooperation between China and ASEAN （Association of Southeast Asian Nations）. It is significant to accurately understand and set the bilateral trade relationship for the further development of the economic and trade cooperation between China and ASEAN. This paper makes a discussion of the interdependency, competion, complementation and causality between China and ASEAN with the UN COMTRADE data by adopting mutil-category indexes. The study shows there is some similarity in the export structure between China and ASEAN, where exists serious competion; the complementation on some products between China and ASEAN is constantly strenghtened and there is broad cooperation space; the trades of the two countries are closely related and interdependent on each other; there are cause-effect reltionships between the total trades, total exportations and total importations of China and ASEAN. Finally, some suggestions are formed. To begin with, we should strenghten the trade cooperation between China and the memberships in ASEAN by seizing the construction opportunities of ＂the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road＂. Secondly, we should both be clear aware of the competion between China and ASEAN and broaden the trade cooperation fields. What＇s more, we should pay attention to the complementation of the China-ASEAN free trade zones and strengthen the regional energy cooperation. In addition, we should strengthen the trade cooperation between China and ASEAN and accelerate the construction of transportation equipments. Lastly, we should take advantage of the cause-and-effect relationship between China and ASEAN to accelerate the updated negotiation about the free trade zones.
作者
杨宏恩
孙汶
YANG Hongen SUN Wen(Institute of International Relations,China Foreign Affairs University, Beijing, 100037 School of Economics,Henan University,Kaifeng,Henan,475001)
出处
《管理学刊》
2016年第5期6-14,共9页
Journal of Management
基金
中国博士后科学基金一等资助(2014M550078)
国家社会科学基金项目(12CGJ025)
关键词
21世纪海上丝绸之路
贸易竞争性
贸易互补性
因果关系
21st-Century Maritime Silk Road, Trade Competitiveness, Trade Complementarity, Causal Relationship
